AL top to bottom in 2024
The Blue Jays rank No. 1 in the league, followed by the Rays and Astros
I spent the past six weeks unrolling my divisional predictions for the 2024 baseball season.
Now it’s time to take the next step, moving up to the league level. Let’s start with the American League.
Here, once again, are the anticipated champions of the AL’s three divisions:
AL East: Toronto Blue Jays
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
AL West: Houston Astros
My predictions, as I have previously explained, are based on a comparison of each current club with 1,288 major-league teams since the era of free agency began in 1976. I identified the 50 closest matches (CMs) for every present-day club, and then examined the subsequent records of those teams. (Click here for details.)
Thirty-eight of Toronto’s 50 CMs, for example, topped .500 in their next seasons, 22 qualified for the playoffs, seven won league titles, and two won the World Series. I assigned point totals to these successive steps, ranging from a single point for a plus-.500 mark to four for a world title.
The Blue Jays’ resulting score of 111 points was not only the highest in the AL East, but the best in the entire American League.
The league’s anticipated runners-up are the Tampa Bay Rays, who are predicted to win a wild-card berth in the playoffs, and the Astros, the AL West’s leaders.
Below are the predicted AL rankings for 2024, based on my historical analysis. You’ll see each club’s prediction score, its expected position in the divisional standings, its 2024 playoff status, the results for its 50 closest matches, and its 2023 record. The latter is followed by the club’s winning percentage and postseason abbreviations (if applicable) of P for a playoff berth, L for a league championship, and W for a world title.
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1. Toronto Blue Jays
2024 prediction points: 111
Forecast for 2024 regular season: First place in AL East
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: Yes, division champion
Results for 50 closest matches: 22 playoff qualifiers, 7 league titles, 2 world championships
2023 record: 89-73 (.549, P)
2. Tampa Bay Rays
2024 prediction points: 105
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Second place in AL East
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: Yes, wild-card qualifier
Results for 50 closest matches: 18 playoff qualifiers, 7 league titles, 4 world championships
2023 record: 99-63 (.611, P)
3. Houston Astros
2024 prediction points: 100
Forecast for 2024 regular season: First place in AL West
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: Yes, division champion
Results for 50 closest matches: 21 playoff qualifiers, 5 league titles, 2 world championships
2023 record: 90-72 (.556, P)
4. Baltimore Orioles
2024 prediction points: 100
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Third place in AL East
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: Yes, wild-card qualifier
Results for 50 closest matches: 20 playoff qualifiers, 4 league titles, 3 world championships
2023 record: 101-61 (.623, P)
5. New York Yankees
2024 prediction points: 83
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Fourth place in AL East
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: Yes, wild-card qualifier
Results for 50 closest matches: 14 playoff qualifiers, 5 league titles, 3 world championships
2023 record: 82-80 (.506)
6. Seattle Mariners
2024 prediction points: 79
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Second place in AL West
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
Results for 50 closest matches: 17 playoff qualifiers, 4 league titles, 0 world championships
2023 record: 88-74 (.543)
7. Texas Rangers
2024 prediction points: 77
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Third place in AL West
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
Results for 50 closest matches: 13 playoff qualifiers, 4 league titles, 2 world championships
2023 record: 90-72 (.556, WLP)
8. Minnesota Twins
2024 prediction points: 71
Forecast for 2024 regular season: First place in AL Central
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: Yes, division champion
Results for 50 closest matches: 14 playoff qualifiers, 3 league titles, 1 world championship
2023 record: 87-75 (.537, P)
9. Boston Red Sox
2024 prediction points: 58
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Fifth place in AL East
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
Results for 50 closest matches: 9 playoff qualifiers, 4 league titles, 2 world championships
2023 record: 78-84 (.481)
10. Cleveland Guardians
2024 prediction points: 49
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Second place in AL Central
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
Results for 50 closest matches: 10 playoff qualifiers, 0 league titles, 0 world championships
2023 record: 76-86 (.469)
11. Los Angeles Angels
2024 prediction points: 38
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Fourth place in AL West
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
Results for 50 closest matches: 6 playoff qualifiers, 2 league titles, 1 world championship
2023 record: 73-89 (.451)
12. Chicago White Sox
2024 prediction points: 35
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Third place in AL Central
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
Results for 50 closest matches: 7 playoff qualifiers, 1 league title, 1 world championship
2023 record: 61-101 (.377)
13. Detroit Tigers
2024 prediction points: 32
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Fourth place in AL Central
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
Results for 50 closest matches: 7 playoff qualifiers, 1 league title, 0 world championships
2023 record: 78-84 (.481)
14. Kansas City Royals
2024 prediction points: 11
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Fifth place in AL Central
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
Results for 50 closest matches: 1 playoff qualifier, 0 league titles, 0 world championships
2023 record: 56-106 (.346)
15. Oakland Athletics
2024 prediction points: 10
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Fifth place in AL West
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
Results for 50 closest matches: 1 playoff qualifier, 0 league titles, 0 world championships
2023 record: 50-112 (.309)