It’s a simple matter to predict the champion of the American League’s Western Division. You really can’t go wrong by installing Houston as the favorite.
The Astros have dominated the AL West since 2017 — taking five of the past six divisional crowns — a period they bookended with World Series titles in 2017 and 2022.
The sole exception was the truncated Covid season of 2020, when Houston squeaked into the expanded playoffs with an atypical sub-.500 record (29-31). But the Astros salvaged their pride by advancing all the way to the AL Championship Series, which they lost to the Tampa Bay Rays in seven games.
So it’s Houston again in 2023, right?
Right.
My forecasting system matched the 2020-2022 performance of each AL West club against the three-year records for 1,258 teams throughout the free-agent era, which began in 1976. It then evaluated the subsequent records of the 50 closest matches (CMs) for each current club. (Click here to learn more.)
Thirty-one of Houston’s 50 CMs went to the playoffs in their next seasons, thereby stamping the Astros as the class of the AL West in 2023. The runner-up Seattle Mariners had 14 CMs qualify for the postseason.
History suggests that the other three teams in the division will finish well out of the running. Only eight of the 50 closest matches for the Los Angeles Angels were playoff-bound, as were seven for the Texas Rangers and three for the Oakland Athletics.
Here, as a result, are the projected 2023 standings for the AL West:
1. Astros
2. Mariners
3. Angels
4. Rangers
5. Athletics
You’ll find breakdowns for all five teams below. Each summary begins with the club’s 2022 record, accompanied by postseason abbreviations (if applicable) of P for a playoff berth, L for a league championship, and W for a world title. Then come the cumulative results (in the next season) for the 50 closest matches for a given franchise (based on my 2020-2022 comparisons), followed by a list of the five very best CMs with their subsequent records.
If you want to know more this forecast, you’ll find details in the newly published Baseball’s Best (and Worst) 2023 Yearbook. Other links will take you to my previous forecasts for the AL East and AL Central.
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1. Houston Astros
2022 record: 106-56 (.654, WLP)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 8 of 50
Won league title in next season: 14 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 31 of 50
CM #1: Indians (1993-1995); 1996 record: 99-62 (.615, P)
CM #2: Athletics (1987-1989); 1990 record: 103-59 (.636, LP)
CM #3: Dodgers (1976-1978); 1979 record: 79-83 (.488)
CM #4: Indians (2015-2017); 2018 record: 91-71 (.562, P)
CM #5: Mariners (1999-2001); 2002 record: 93-69 (.574)
2. Seattle Mariners
2022 record: 90-72 (.556, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 3 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 14 of 50
CM #1: Rays (2016-2018); 2019 record: 96-66 (.593, P)
CM #2: Royals (1992-1994); 1995 record: 70-74 (.486)
CM #3: Mets (1974-1976); 1977 record: 64-98 (.395)
CM #4: Cardinals (1990-1992); 1993 record: 87-75 (.537)
CM #5: Blue Jays (2004-2006); 2007 record: 83-79 (.512)
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3. Los Angeles Angels
2022 record: 73-89 (.451)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 2 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 8 of 50
CM #1: Athletics (1983-1985); 1986 record: 76-86 (.469)
CM #2: Indians (1988-1990); 1991 record: 57-105 (.352)
CM #3: Padres (1999-2001); 2002 record: 66-96 (.407)
CM #4: Giants (1975-1977); 1978 record: 89-73 (.549)
CM #5: Athletics (1984-1986); 1987 record: 81-81 (.500)
4. Texas Rangers
2022 record: 68-94 (.420)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 0 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 7 of 50
CM #1: Phillies (1988-1990); 1991 record: 78-84 (.481)
CM #2: Phillies (1996-1998); 1999 record: 77-85 (.475)
CM #3: Royals (2009-2011); 2012 record: 72-90 (.444)
CM #4: Nationals (2008-2010); 2011 record: 80-81 (.497)
CM #5: Cubs (1980-1982); 1983 record: 71-91 (.438)
5. Oakland Athletics
2022 record: 60-102 (.370)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 0 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 3 of 50
CM #1: Rangers (2012-2014); 2015 record: 88-74 (.543, P)
CM #2: Cubs (2004-2006); 2007 record: 85-77 (.525, P)
CM #3: Reds (1980-1982); 1983 record: 74-88 (.457)
CM #4: Reds (1999-2001); 2002 record: 78-84 (.481)
CM #5: Twins (2009-2011); 2012 record: 66-96 (.407)
Baseball’s Best (and Worst) 2023 Yearbook
A complete rundown of 2022 stats — and a look ahead at the season to come