Cracking the expansion top 20
Today’s contenders deserve a look, though they fall short of perfection
Portland, Indianapolis, and Vancouver would seem to be worthy of consideration in Major League Baseball’s next round of expansion, whenever it occurs.
The three cities aren’t outstanding candidates by any means, but they are better than most. I place them among the top 15 contenders in my rankings of 37 American, Canadian, Caribbean, and Mexican markets.
Their problem is that they aren’t in the top 10.
I’ve been rolling out my assessments of expansion candidates on recent Wednesdays. Click here for details. And follow these links to see the breakdowns for 21st through 30th place, and 31st through 37th place.
My rankings are based on a formula that weighs a variety of factors, including metropolitan population, current minor-league affiliation (if any), distance to the closest big-league market, and average personal income. Scores are plotted on a 100-point scale.
Our focus today is on the markets that fall between 11th and 20th place — decent candidates that fall a bit short of the qualities that MLB will be looking for when it finally decides to add a pair of new franchises. And yes, you’ll find Portland, Indianapolis, and Vancouver on the list below.
The following summaries contain each market’s expansion score; its population; its current level in organized baseball (Class AAA, AA, or A); its number of teams in the National Basketball Association, National Football League, and National Hockey League; its status in Major League Soccer (whose season is coincident with MLB’s); the closest existing MLB market (assuming that the Oakland Athletics move to Las Vegas); and the number of existing markets within 200 air miles.
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11. Portland
Expansion score: 70.79 points
Metro population: 2,509,489
Current baseball level: A
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 1
MLS team: Yes
Closest MLB market: Seattle, 136 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 1
Bottom line: Portland has long been considered a major contender in the expansion derby, so its fairly low rank in this study may come as a surprise. It boasts a healthy economy and elevated income levels. But Portland’s baseball connections were weakened by the 2010 loss of its AAA franchise.
12. Oklahoma City
Expansion score: 70.02 points
Metro population: 1,459,380
Current baseball level: AAA
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 1
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Dallas, 189 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 1
Bottom line: Oklahoma City is never mentioned as an expansion candidate, though it outranks more than two-thirds of the candidates in this study. The NBA has certainly found a home in Oklahoma’s capital. But is the market too small to support an MLB club, too?
13. Indianapolis
Expansion score: 69.27 points
Metro population: 2,141,779
Current baseball level: AAA
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 2
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Cincinnati, 100 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 2
Bottom line: Indianapolis is ahead of two MLB markets (Cleveland and Milwaukee) in metropolitan population, though it’s certainly no behemoth. Perhaps the major concern Is the existence of NFL and NBA competitors. Baseball might struggle to gain a foothold.
14. Columbus
Expansion score: 67.74 points
Metro population: 2,161,511
Current baseball level: AAA
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 1
MLS team: Yes
Closest MLB market: Cincinnati, 98 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 4
Bottom line: Columbus, the home of Ohio State University, was once dismissed as merely a college town. But it grew larger and stronger over time, attracting NHL and MLS franchises. It’s an attractive baseball market, though it might be too small — and a bit too close to Cincinnati.
15. Vancouver
Expansion score: 64.85 points
Metro population: 2,642,825
Current baseball level: A
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 1
MLS team: Yes
Closest MLB market: Seattle, 129 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 1
Bottom line: Vancouver maintained a fairly regular presence in the AAA Pacific Coast League between the 1950s and the end of the 20th century. But it’s stuck in Class A today, diminishing its baseball clout. Yet its vibrant economy makes it an intriguing expansion longshot.
16. (tie) Mexico City
Expansion score: 64.40 points
Metro population: 21,804,515
Current baseball level: None
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 0
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Houston, 752 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 0
Bottom line: It’s a statistical fluke that both Mexican markets in this study earned the same score. Mexico City’s biggest selling point is its massive population, which is 11 percent larger than New York’s. Its biggest drawback is isolation. Mexico City is more than 1,200 air miles distant from every big-league market but Houston and Dallas.
16. (tie) Monterrey
Expansion score: 64.40 points
Metro population: 5,341,171
Current baseball level: None
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 0
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Houston, 413 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 0
Bottom line: Monterrey is a good bit smaller than Mexico City, though it’s still bigger than 17 current MLB markets. It’s also closer to the United States than the Mexican capital is. But money is the biggest stumbling block for both Mexican contenders. Are their income levels simply too low to support big-league teams?
18. Memphis
Expansion score: 63.68 points
Metro population: 1,332,305
Current baseball level: AAA
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 1
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: St. Louis, 245 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 0
Bottom line: Memphis has enjoyed a long history with minor-league ball, but its population base is too small and its income levels are too low to attract MLB’s interest. If the majors decide to expand to Tennessee, they’ll head to Nashville, not Memphis.
19. Orlando
Expansion score: 62.07 points
Metro population: 2,764,182
Current baseball level: None
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 1
MLS team: Yes
Closest MLB market: Tampa, 78 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 2
Bottom line: Orlando’s population already exceeds the corresponding figures for six MLB markets, and it’s growing rapidly. So why is it submerged in 19th place in these rankings? The biggest reason is the proximity of the financially hobbled Tampa Bay Rays.
20. Tulsa
Expansion score: 61.87 points
Metro population: 1,034,123
Current baseball level: AA
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 0
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Kansas City, 215 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 0
Bottom line: Two Oklahoma metros contain more than 1 million residents. We previously met Oklahoma City in the No. 12 slot above. Income levels are actually a bit more favorable in Tulsa, but its population is 29 percent smaller than OKC’s, which is a disqualifying trait.