NL East 2022 forecast

Ho hum, the Braves are on top again, but the Mets (shockingly) drop to last place

Feb 11, 2022

The prediction would have been correct for any season since 2018, so why shouldn’t I try it again?

My annual forecast envisions the Atlanta Braves as the 2022 champions of the National League East Division, a title that would extend their reign to five consecutive years.

And what of the free-spending Mets, the popular favorite to seize the divisional crown this year? My computer says — brace yourself — that New York will finish dead-last in the five-team NL East for the first time since 2003.

Say what?

This is an ideal place to explain my prediction system, which is markedly different from all others. I pay no attention to offseason pickups or managerial changes, so New York’s acquisitions of Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, Eduardo Escobar, and Buck Showalter mean absolutely nothing to my calculations.

My forecast is driven by history, matching each club’s performance during the past three years against the three-year records for every team since the onset of free agency in 1976.

I’ve analyzed all of these clubs on a 100-point scale, with their team scores (TS) being determined by winning percentage, the differential between runs scored and allowed per game, the differential between bases per out (BPO) attained by batters and allowed by pitchers, and postseason success (if any).

My goal is to track down hints from the past that will open a window into the future — specifically for teams from prior years that share characteristics with current clubs. If I can identify such matches, their subsequent records might suggest the future course of each team that takes the field in 2022 (provided, of course, that a labor-management agreement is reached to allow a season).

I have already used this system in the past three weeks to issue 2022 predictions for the American League’s three divisions. (Click here to see stories about the AL East, AL Central, and AL West.) Now it’s the NL’s turn.

Let’s look at how the forecast for the Braves came about. Their closest match turns out to be the 2003-2005 Houston Astros, whose wins, losses, winning percentages, and team scores are shown below:

2003: 87-75, .537, TS 57.775
2004: 92-70, .568, TS 58.568
2005: 89-73, .549, TS 72.466

The Astros rose to the playoffs in the second season of that three-year span — and took the National League title in the third. That’s remarkably similar to the path followed by the Braves since 2019. Atlanta made the playoffs all three years, jumping up to win the World Series in 2021:

2019: 97-65, .599, TS 61.197
2020: 35-25, .583, TS 61.310
2021: 88-73, .547, TS 73.126

The bad news for the Braves is that the Astros slipped to an 82-80 record in 2006, the first season following their three-year span. Could a similar decline be in the cards in Atlanta?

Possibly, but it really doesn’t make sense to rely simply on the closest parallel for each current team. So I generated a list of the top five matches, and then I averaged their team scores for the first season after the three-year study period, generating a forecast of the relevant club’s progress in 2022.

The five teams that came closest to the 2021 Braves, for example, all played better than .500 ball in the season that followed, and two of them (the 1978 Royals and 1986 Yankees) won at least 90 games. The average TS for the five matches was 56.700, which should be good enough to bring another divisional title to Atlanta.

The closest match for the Mets, on the other hand was the 1977-1979 Chicago Cubs, who dived to a 64-98 record in 1980. Three of New York’s other four matches also finished below .500.

It’s a different way to make predictions, that’s for sure, and it’s obviously not foolproof. But if nothing else, it does suggest that Mets fans might want to temper their preseason enthusiasm just a bit.

The same goes for the other NL East clubs outside of Atlanta. The computer envisions all three joining the Mets with sub-.500 records. Here are the resulting standings for 2022, based solely on team scores. The win-loss records, which are a byproduct of the prediction process, don’t line up perfectly, but they do indicate the expected mediocrity of the four runnersup:

1. Atlanta Braves (88-74), TS 56.700
2. Miami Marlins (79-83), TS 44.446
3. Washington Nationals (78-84), TS 44.243
4. Philadelphia Phillies (75-87), TS 37.724
5. New York Mets (76-86), TS 37.501

I have also generated the standings for 2023 and 2024, using the same system as for 2022, but the crystal ball obviously gets murky at such a distance.

I’ve included the results in the summaries below for their amusement value, if nothing else. They show the Marlins winning the NL East a year from now, with the Braves bouncing back to the top in 2024. The Mets are picked for last place both times.

The five NL East teams are shown in predicted 2022 order below. Each is followed by its 2021 record, its five closest matches, the subsequent performances of the top two matches, and my three years of predictions. (The matches, by the way, are identified by the final year of their spans. The 2003-2005 Astros, for example, are listed with the stats for their third season.)

We’ll move along to the NL Central next week.

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1. Atlanta Braves

2021 record: 88-73
2021 TS: 73.126; TS rank: 4 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Astros 2005 (89-73, TS 72.466); 2. Tigers 1987 (98-64, TS 71.911); 3. Blue Jays 1985 (99-62, TS 71.062); 4. Royals 1977 (102-60, TS 68.760); 5. Yankees 1985 (97-64, TS 70.868)
What happened to top two matches: The Astros won the first league pennant in their 44-year history in 2005, but subsequent seasons were disappointing. Houston dropped to an 82-80 record in 2006, then fell below .500 the following year. The Tigers suffered a similar slide after making the American League Championship Series in 1987. They didn’t return to the playoffs for 19 years.
2022 prediction: 88-74, TS 56.700 (Division: 1 of 5; MLB: 7 of 30)
2023 prediction: 80-82, TS 42.562 (Division: 2 of 5; MLB: 19 of 30)
2024 prediction: 87-75, TS 53.272 (Division: 1 of 5; MLB: 7 of 30)

2. Miami Marlins

2021 record: 67-95
2021 TS: 33.754; TS rank: 24 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Indians 1989 (73-89, TS 36.431); 2. Phillies 1991 (78-84, TS 33.356); 3. Marlins 2015 (71-91, TS 36.367); 4. Mariners 1988 (68-93, TS 32.754); 5. Tigers 2005 (71-91, TS 34.583)
What happened to top two matches: A long spell of mediocrity awaited the Indians after 1989. Cleveland spent the next four years below .500 before suddenly shooting into contention, capped by 1995 and 1997 appearances in the World Series. The nine years after 1991 were a mixed bag for the Phillies, highlighted by a rare World Series berth, but cursed with eight sub-.500 seasons.
2022 prediction: 79-83, TS 44.446 (Division: 2 of 5; MLB: 15 of 30)
2023 prediction: 79-83, TS 44.485 (Division: 1 of 5; MLB: 16 of 30)
2024 prediction: 74-88, TS 35.278 (Division: 4 of 5; MLB: 27 of 30)

3. Washington Nationals

2021 record: 65-97
2021 TS: 32.604; TS rank: 25 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Dodgers 1987 (73-89, TS 33.288); 2. Royals 2017 (80-82, TS 37.495); 3. Padres 2000 (76-86, TS 37.705); 4. Angels 1988 (75-87, TS 35.881); 5. Pirates 1994 (53-61, TS 29.007)
What happened to top two matches: The Dodgers stunned the experts by rebounding from their dismal 1987 record to win the 1988 World Series. But the success was short-lived, as Los Angeles missed the playoffs the following six years. The Royals hit the skids after their 2015 world title. They slipped below .500 in 2017, starting a losing streak that has now reached five years.
2022 prediction: 78-84, TS 44.243 (Division: 3 of 5; MLB: 16 of 30)
2023 prediction: 71-91, TS 34.178 (Division: 4 of 5; MLB: 28 of 30)
2024 prediction: 76-86, TS 39.427 (Division: 2 of 5; MLB: 22 of 30)

4. Philadelphia Phillies

2021 record: 82-80
2021 TS: 46.864; TS rank: 14 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Indians 1981 (52-51, TS 44.343); 2. Cardinals 1977 (83-79, TS 47.641); 3. Mariners 1991 (83-79, TS 47.815); 4. Twins 1979 (82-80, TS 47.473); 5. Angels 1978 (87-75, TS 47.934)
What happened to top two matches: The Indians crept above .500 in the strike year of 1981, but they were unable to remain on the sunny side of the 50/50 line. Cleveland languished with losing records during 11 of the 12 subsequent seasons. Brighter times lay ahead for the Cardinals, albeit on the distant horizon. St. Louis alternated bad and good years until 1982’s World Series triumph.
2022 prediction: 75-87, TS 37.724 (Division: 4 of 5; MLB: 24 of 30)
2023 prediction: 73-89, TS 35.417 (Division: 3 of 5; MLB: 25 of 30)
2024 prediction: 71-91, TS 36.255 (Division: 3 of 5; MLB: 25 of 30)

5. New York Mets

2021 record: 77-85
2021 TS: 42.744; TS rank: 18 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Cubs 1979 (80-82, TS 43.092); 2. White Sox 1998 (80-82, TS 41.089); 3. Reds 1998 (77-85, TS 42.449); 4. Marlins 2016 (79-82, TS 42.501); 5. Pirates 1999 (78-83, TS 43.036)
What happened to top two matches: The computer suggests that you look to Chicago to glimpse the Mets’ future. The Cubs tanked after 1979, plummeting below .400 the next two years and not posting a winning record until 1984, when they won a divisional crown. The White Sox fared slightly better, stumbling in 1999 before making the playoffs in 2000, then falling out of contention again.
2022 prediction: 76-86, TS 37.501 (Division: 5 of 5; MLB: 26 of 30)
2023 prediction: 73-89, TS 33.606 (Division: 5 of 5; MLB: 30 of 30)
2024 prediction: 70-92, TS 31.221 (Division: 5 of 5; MLB: 30 of 30)

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