Best options for MLB expansion
Montreal and Charlotte earn the highest scores among the 37 candidates
If and when Rob Manfred decides it’s time to expand, Major League Baseball should grant franchises to Montreal and Charlotte.
I reached that conclusion after analyzing the relative merits of 37 American, Canadian, Caribbean, and Mexican markets that are currently outside the MLB umbrella. My formula considered an array of factors (including population, current minor-league affiliation, distance to the closest big-league market, and average personal income) and used them to generate an expansion score for each metropolitan area. (Click here to learn more about the process.)
Montreal sits atop the resulting standings with an expansion score of 85.48 points, followed by Charlotte at 80.33. It’s generally assumed that MLB will add only two franchises when it expands.
My formula, it should be said, is not 100 percent precise. It offers a good approximation of each market’s desirability as an MLB expansion site, though it certainly can’t guarantee a perfect match.
A similar process in the 1990s, after all, certainly would have awarded high scores to Miami and Tampa. Yet both of those markets have bombed at the box office, despite their impeccable demographics.
Montreal itself has a mixed record of baseball support. It hosted the Expos between 1969 and 2004, drawing more than 2 million fans in four different years.
Montreal’s fan support index (FSI) exceeded the 100-point baseline in 11 of the club’s first 15 seasons (1969-1983), indicating that its attendance was higher than the team had a right to expect, based on its win-loss records.
But the Expos’ FSI dropped below 100 in 1984 and never returned to triple digits, a sign of persistent box-office weakness. The franchise relocated to Washington in 2005.
Charlotte currently has a team in the International League, one step below the majors. It posted the highest FSI for any of the 30 clubs at the AAA level last year, 162.1, which was 62.1 percent above the AAA norm.
The runners-up in my expansion rankings — from No. 3 to No. 10 — are Austin, San Antonio, Nashville, Riverside-San Bernardino, Jacksonville, Sacramento, Virginia Beach-Norfolk, and Raleigh. Some of these markets are primed to compete for expansion franchises, but a few are rarely mentioned in that regard.
Stories on the three previous Wednesdays focused on the candidates with lesser scores. Follow these links to read about the markets in 11th through 20th place, 21st through 30th place, and 31st through 37th place.
Then look below to see the top 10. Each breakdown includes a market’s expansion score; population; current level in organized baseball; number of teams in the National Basketball Association, National Football League, and National Hockey League; status in Major League Soccer (whose season is roughly the same as baseball’s); closest existing MLB market (assuming that the Oakland Athletics move to Las Vegas); and number of existing markets within 200 air miles.
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1. Montreal
Expansion score: 85.48 points
Metro population: 4,291,732
Current baseball level: None (former MLB market)
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 1
MLS team: Yes
Closest MLB market: Boston, 247 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 0
Bottom line: The Expos were ultimately a failure in Montreal, though the club enjoyed an impressively good run in the early years, perhaps making the city worthy of another chance. There’s no doubt that the metro area is large enough and wealthy enough. And it would benefit from an immediate rivalry with Canada’s other great city, Toronto.
2. Charlotte
Expansion score: 80.33 points
Metro population: 2,756,069
Current baseball level: AAA
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 2
MLS team: Yes
Closest MLB market: Atlanta, 223 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 0
Bottom line: Charlotte gives solid support to its minor-league team, a factor that should weigh in its favor. The minors always drew poorly in Miami and Tampa, a deficiency that MLB mistakenly ignored. Size is another plus. Charlotte is bigger than six markets currently in the majors.
3. Austin
Expansion score: 78.72 points
Metro population: 2,421,115
Current baseball level: AAA
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 0
MLS team: Yes
Closest MLB market: Houston, 147 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 2
Bottom line: Austin is one of the fastest-growing metros in North America, and its income levels are impressively high. Yet it is rarely mentioned as a potential MLB site. One drawback might be its proximity to Houston. It’s hard to imagine the Astros willingly sharing their territory with a newcomer.
4. San Antonio
Expansion score: 77.33 points
Metro population: 2,655,342
Current baseball level: AA
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 1
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Houston, 186 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 1
Bottom line: Austin and San Antonio are only 80 miles apart, so there’s no chance that MLB would bestow franchises on both. San Antonio is a bit larger than its northeastern neighbor, though its population isn’t expanding as rapidly as Austin’s and its economy isn’t as strong.
5. Nashville
Expansion score: 76.97 points
Metro population: 2,046,828
Current baseball level: AAA
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 2
MLS team: Yes
Closest MLB market: Atlanta, 207 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 0
Bottom line: Nashville is often mentioned as a frontrunner in the expansion derby. But it’s smaller than the four higher-rated markets in these standings. And a new MLB team would have to share Nashville’s relatively tight population base with big-league clubs in three other sports.
6. Riverside-San Bernardino
Expansion score: 72.95 points
Metro population: 4,667,558
Current baseball level: A
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 0
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Los Angeles, 44 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 3
Bottom line: The suburban region east of Los Angeles, known locally as the Inland Empire, is classified as a separate metropolitan area, Riverside-San Bernardino. It’s an intriguing MLB candidate, given its massive population. But the Dodgers and Angels would never welcome an interloper to their territory.
7. Jacksonville
Expansion score: 71.47 points
Metro population: 1,675,668
Current baseball level: AAA
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 1
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Tampa, 163 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 1
Bottom line: Jacksonville’s high score admittedly comes as a surprise. It’s a much smaller market than any of the six rated above it, though it is blessedly free of summer competition. (Jacksonville’s only big-league team is the NFL Jaguars). But would MLB really locate another franchise in Florida?
8. Sacramento
Expansion score: 71.40 points
Metro population: 2,416,702
Current baseball level: AAA
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 1
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: San Francisco, 80 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 1
Bottom line: Sacramento is a market with decent growth potential, a history of AAA baseball, and a dearth of potential big-league competition (only the NBA Kings). But it’s awfully close to San Francisco. The Giants will have northern California to themselves after the A’s move to Las Vegas. They won’t want a new neighbor.
9. Virginia Beach-Norfolk
Expansion score: 71.05 points
Metro population: 1,806,840
Current baseball level: AAA
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 0
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Washington, 145 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 2
Bottom line: This is the second-largest U.S. market without any major-league teams in baseball, football, basketball, hockey, or soccer. But it seems a bit small for MLB, and it lacks a definite center. Virginia Beach and Norfolk are 20 miles apart and not known for cooperating with each other. Which would get the franchise?
10. Raleigh
Expansion score: 70.97 points
Metro population: 1,484,338
Current baseball level: AAA
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 1
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Washington, 231 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 0
Bottom line: North Carolina’s Research Triangle, the prosperous metropolitan area anchored by Raleigh, is actually bigger than the population listed above. The adjacent Durham metro chips in another 650,000 residents. Yet this region still falls short of the state’s best candidate, No. 2 Charlotte.