My National League forecast for 2023, which was unveiled over the past three weeks, is highlighted by the following divisional champions. Click on each link for details:
NL East: Atlanta Braves
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
My predictions are based on comparisons of the the league’s 15 current clubs with the three-year records of 1,258 teams from the span between 1976 and 2020. I focused on the 50 closest matches (CMs) for each squad, the 50 teams from the past that most closely resembled each present-day club.
Look below to see my top-to-bottom 2023 rankings of National League teams, as determined by the next-year records of each club’s CMs. The standings are based on the number of playoff qualifiers, with any ties broken progressively by the numbers of league titles and world championships.
Each club’s 2022 record is listed with its winning percentage and postseason abbreviations (if applicable) of P for a playoff berth, L for a league championship, and W for a world title.
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1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Results for 50 closest matches: 34 playoff qualifiers, 15 league titles, 8 world championships
Forecast for 2023 regular season: 1st place in NL West
Qualify for 2023 playoffs: Yes, division champion
Record in 2022: 111-51 (.685, P)
2. Atlanta Braves
Results for 50 closest matches: 26 playoff qualifiers, 6 league titles, 3 world championships
Forecast for 2023 regular season: 1st place in NL East
Qualify for 2023 playoffs: Yes, division champion
Record in 2022: 101-61 (.623, P)
3. Milwaukee Brewers
Results for 50 closest matches: 22 playoff qualifiers, 4 league titles, 1 world championship
Forecast for 2023 regular season: 1st place in NL Central
Qualify for 2023 playoffs: Yes, division champion
Record in 2022: 86-76 (.531)
4. New York Mets
Results for 50 closest matches: 21 playoff qualifiers, 6 league titles, 3 world championships
Forecast for 2023 regular season: 2nd place in NL East
Qualify for 2023 playoffs: Yes, wild-card qualifier
Record in 2022: 101-61 (.623, P)
5. St. Louis Cardinals
Results for 50 closest matches: 21 playoff qualifiers, 6 league titles, 1 world championship
Forecast for 2023 regular season: 2nd place in NL Central
Qualify for 2023 playoffs: Yes, wild-card qualifier
Record in 2022: 93-69 (.574, P)
6. Philadelphia Phillies
Results for 50 closest matches: 19 playoff qualifiers, 6 league titles, 3 world championships
Forecast for 2023 regular season: 3rd place in NL East
Qualify for 2023 playoffs: Yes, wild-card qualifier
Record in 2022: 87-75 (.537, LP)
7. San Francisco Giants
Results for 50 closest matches: 16 playoff qualifiers, 5 league titles, 4 world championships
Forecast for 2023 regular season: 2nd place in NL West
Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No
Record in 2022: 81-81 (.500)
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8. San Diego Padres
Results for 50 closest matches: 12 playoff qualifiers, 4 league titles, 0 world championships
Forecast for 2023 regular season: 3rd place in NL West
Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No
Record in 2022: 89-73 (.549, P)
9. Arizona Diamondbacks
Results for 50 closest matches: 8 playoff qualifiers, 1 league title, 0 world championships
Forecast for 2023 regular season: 4th place in NL West
Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No
Record in 2022: 74-88 (.457)
10. Cincinnati Reds
Results for 50 closest matches: 5 playoff qualifiers, 1 league title, 1 world championship
Forecast for 2023 regular season: 3rd place in NL Central
Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No
Record in 2022: 62-100 (.383)
11. Miami Marlins
Results for 50 closest matches: 4 playoff qualifiers, 1 league title, 0 world championships
Forecast for 2023 regular season: 4th place in NL East
Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No
Record in 2022: 69-93 (.426)
12. Chicago Cubs
Results for 50 closest matches: 4 playoff qualifiers, 0 league titles, 0 world championships
Forecast for 2023 regular season: 4th place in NL Central
Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No
Record in 2022: 74-88 (.457)
13. Pittsburgh Pirates
Results for 50 closest matches: 3 playoff qualifiers, 2 league titles, 0 world championships
Forecast for 2023 regular season: 5th place in NL Central
Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No
Record in 2022: 62-100 (.383)
14. Colorado Rockies
Results for 50 closest matches: 3 playoff qualifiers, 1 league title, 1 world championship
Forecast for 2023 regular season: 5th place in NL West
Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No
Record in 2022: 68-94 (.420)
15. Washington Nationals
Results for 50 closest matches: 2 playoff qualifiers, 0 league titles, 0 world championships
Forecast for 2023 regular season: 5th place in NL East
Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No
Record in 2022: 55-107 (.340)
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