NL East 2023 forecast

The Braves enjoy a (very) slight edge, with the Mets and Phillies close behind

Feb 07, 2023

No division staged a better pennant race in 2022 than the National League East.

The New York Mets surged to a 34-17 record by the end of May, giving them a seemingly insurmountable lead of 10 and a half games over the Atlanta Braves and 12 and a half games over the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Mets continued to play fine ball the rest of the way — winning at a .604 clip during the season’s final four months — yet the Braves surged into overdrive at 78-34 (.696). Atlanta seemingly did the impossible — tying the Mets with a 101-61 record and actually winning the divisional title on a tiebreaker.

As for Philadelphia? The Phillies barely won the NL’s final playoff spot before suddenly turning white-hot and making it all the way to the World Series.

All three clubs seem to be poised for another dogfight in 2023, though my prediction system gives a slight edge to the Braves.

I issued my annual forecasts for the American League on the past three Tuesdays, powered by my comparisons of current clubs with the three-year records of 1,258 teams from the span between 1976 and 2020, better known as the era of free agency. (Click here to learn more about my prediction system. And follow these links to its views on the AL East, AL Central, and AL West.)

Today’s installment is based on the 50 closest matches (CMs) for each NL East club, the 50 teams from the past that most closely resembled each present-day squad.

This system gives the Braves a slight edge, since 26 of their 50 CMs made it to the playoffs in the subsequent season. The Mets and Phillies had 21 and 19 qualifiers, respectively.

The other two clubs in the division are far behind — the Miami Marlins with four playoff CMS and the Washington Nationals with just two.

That leaves us with these projected standings for the NL East in 2023:

1. Braves
2. Mets
3. Phillies
4. Marlins
5. Nationals

Scroll below to see breakdowns for all five clubs. The first entry for each team is its 2022 record, along with postseason abbreviations of P for a playoff berth, L for a league championship, and W for a world title. Next are the subsequent-season results for the 50 closest matches for a given franchise (based on my 2020-2022 analysis), followed by a list of the top five CMs and their next-year records.

Additional details can be found in the newly published Baseball’s Best (and Worst) 2023 Yearbook.

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1. Atlanta Braves

2022 record: 101-61 (.623, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 3 of 50
Won league title in next season: 6 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 26 of 50
CM #1: Astros (1997-1999); 2000 record: 72-90 (.444)
CM #2: Athletics (2000-2002); 2003 record: 96-66 (.593, P)
CM #3: Giants (2001-2003); 2004 record: 91-71 (.562)
CM #4: Pirates (1990-1992); 1993 record: 75-87 (.463)
CM #5: Yankees (2005-2007); 2008 record: 89-73 (.549)

2. New York Mets

2022 record: 101-61 (.623, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 3 of 50
Won league title in next season: 6 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 21 of 50
CM #1: Padres (1994-1996); 1997 record: 76-86 (.469)
CM #2: Mariners (1998-2000); 2001 record: 116-46 (.716, P)
CM #3: Reds (1997-1999); 2000 record: 85-77 (.525)
CM #4: Expos (1977-1979); 1980 record: 90-72 (.556)
CM #5: Indians (2003-2005); 2006 record: 78-84 (.481)

3. Philadelphia Phillies

2022 record: 87-75 (.537, LP)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 3 of 50
Won league title in next season: 6 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 19 of 50
CM #1: Astros (1984-1986); 1987 record: 76-86 (.469)
CM #2: Red Sox (1996-1998); 1999 record: 94-68 (.580, P)
CM #3: Mariners (1998-2000); 2001 record: 116-46 (.716, P)
CM #4: Indians (2003-2005); 2006 record: 78-84 (.481)
CM #5: Red Sox (2000-2002); 2003 record: 95-67 (.586, P)

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4. Miami Marlins

2022 record: 69-93 (.426)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 1 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 4 of 50
CM #1: Brewers (1997-1999); 2000 record: 73-89 (.451)
CM #2: Phillies (1990-1992); 1993 record: 97-65 (.599, LP)
CM #3: Blue Jays (2017-2019); 2020 record: 32-28 (.533, P)
CM #4: Reds (2006-2008); 2009 record: 78-84 (.481)
CM #5: Angels (1974-1976); 1977 record: 74-88 (.457)

5. Washington Nationals

2022 record: 55-107 (.340)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 0 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 2 of 50
CM #1: Marlins (2011-2013); 2014 record: 77-85 (.475)
CM #2: Cubs (2010-2012); 2013 record: 66-96 (.407)
CM #3: Rockies (2003-2005); 2006 record: 76-86 (.469)
CM #4: Astros (1989-1991); 1992 record: 81-81 (.500)
CM #5: Pirates (1993-1995); 1996 record: 73-89 (.451)

Baseball’s Best (and Worst) 2023 Yearbook

A complete rundown of 2022 stats — and a look ahead at the season to come