NL top to bottom in 2024
The Dodgers surge into the lead, with the Braves and Phillies in close pursuit
I unveiled my top-to-bottom preseason rankings of the 15 American League teams on Tuesday. Do you care to guess today’s subject?
The 15 National League clubs, of course.
I have already issued my predictions for the NL’s three divisions. These are the likely champions:
NL East: Atlanta Braves
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
My forecasts are based on comparisons of the league’s current clubs with the three-year records of 1,288 teams from the span between 1976 and 2021. I focused on the 50 closest matches (CMs) for each squad, the 50 teams from the past that most closely resembled each present-day club. (Click here for details.)
Each team’s score is based on the subsequent performances of its 50 CMs, with one point for each winning percentage above .500, two for each playoff qualifier, three for each league title, and four for each world championship.
The Dodgers sit at the top of the National League rankings with a total of 143 points, followed by the Braves at 126 and the Philadelphia Phillies at 122. The Phils are expected to secure a wild-card berth in the playoffs.
Look below to see my top-to-bottom 2024 rankings of the 15 NL teams. Each entry includes a club’s score for the upcoming season, its predicted position in the divisional standings, its playoff status, the results for its 50 closest matches, and its 2023 record, including the club’s winning percentage and postseason abbreviations, if applicable. Those abbreviations are P for a playoff berth, L for a league championship, and W for a world title.
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1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2024 prediction points: 143
Forecast for 2024 regular season: First place in NL West
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: Yes, division champion
Results for 50 closest matches: 29 playoff qualifiers, 9 league titles, 4 world championships
2023 record: 100-62 (.617, P)
2. Atlanta Braves
2024 prediction points: 126
Forecast for 2024 regular season: First place in NL East
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: Yes, division champion
Results for 50 closest matches: 27 playoff qualifiers, 8 league titles, 2 world championships
2023 record: 104-58 (.642, P)
3. Philadelphia Phillies
2024 prediction points: 122
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Second place in NL East
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: Yes, wild-card qualifier
Results for 50 closest matches: 22 playoff qualifiers, 8 league titles, 4 world championships
2023 record: 90-72 (.556, P)
4. Milwaukee Brewers
2024 prediction points: 98
Forecast for 2024 regular season: First place in NL Central
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: Yes, division champion
Results for 50 closest matches: 19 playoff qualifiers, 6 league titles, 2 world championships
2023 record: 92-70 (.568, P)
5. Chicago Cubs
2024 prediction points: 85
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Second place in NL Central
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: Yes, wild-card qualifier
Results for 50 closest matches: 15 playoff qualifiers, 5 league titles, 2 world championships
2023 record: 83-79 (.512)
6. San Diego Padres
2024 prediction points: 78
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Second place in NL West
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: Yes, wild-card qualifier
Results for 50 closest matches: 15 playoff qualifiers, 4 league titles, 1 world championship
2023 record: 82-80 (.506)
7. Arizona Diamondbacks
2024 prediction points: 71
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Third place in NL West
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
Results for 50 closest matches: 15 playoff qualifiers, 2 league titles, 1 world championship
2023 record: 84-78 (.519, LP)
8. New York Mets
2024 prediction points: 57
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Third place in NL East
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
Results for 50 closest matches: 11 playoff qualifiers, 2 league titles, 1 world championship
2023 record: 75-87 (.463)
9. St. Louis Cardinals
2024 prediction points: 56
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Third place in NL Central
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
Results for 50 closest matches: 6 playoff qualifiers, 4 league titles, 3 world championships
2023 record: 71-91 (.438)
10. San Francisco Giants
2024 prediction points: 44
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Fourth place in NL West
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
Results for 50 closest matches: 7 playoff qualifiers, 1 league title, 0 world championships
2023 record: 79-83 (.488)
11. Miami Marlins
2024 prediction points: 39
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Fourth place in NL East
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
Results for 50 closest matches: 9 playoff qualifiers, 1 league title, 0 world championships
2023 record: 84-78 (.519, P)
12. Cincinnati Reds
2024 prediction points: 28
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Fourth place in NL Central
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
Results for 50 closest matches: 5 playoff qualifiers, 1 league title, 0 world championships
2023 record: 82-80 (.506)
13. Pittsburgh Pirates
2024 prediction points: 28
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Fifth place in NL Central
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
Results for 50 closest matches: 7 playoff qualifiers, 0 league titles, 0 world championships
2023 record: 76-86 (.469)
14. Washington Nationals
2024 prediction points: 16
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Fifth place in NL East
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
Results for 50 closest matches: 2 playoff qualifiers, 1 league title, 0 world championships
2023 record: 71-91 (.438)
15. Colorado Rockies
2024 prediction points: 14
Forecast for 2024 regular season: Fifth place in NL West
Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
Results for 50 closest matches: 3 playoff qualifiers, 0 league titles, 0 world championships
2023 record: 59-103 (.364)