2021 predictions: NL Central
The forecast for the Cubs isn’t as dark as you might think, though it’s brighter for the Cards
An ugly mood seems to have settled over the North Side of Chicago.
Longtime fans of the Cubs are convinced that their heroes have given up. Yu Darvish has been traded to the Padres. Kyle Schwarber has been ceded to the Nationals as a free agent. Kris Bryant is widely rumored to be available to the highest bidder.
So it seems that the Cubs are entering another of their famous dark periods, doesn’t it? Well, I don’t think so — not immediately, anyway.
I’ve employing an unusual method to predict baseball’s 2021 standings. My system compares each club’s record over the past three years against the corresponding marks for every team since free agency was added to the mix in 1976. (Click here to learn more.)
Here are links to my previous forecasts:
Ballclubs, according to my theory, tend to follow familiar patterns as they pass through time. So I’m ignoring trade activity, new signings, and injury reports — and I’m focusing on those all-important three-year cycles.
The resulting news isn’t all bad for the Cubs. Below is their recent record, including wins, losses, winning percentage, and team score. (You remember TS, right? It’s calculated on a 100-point scale, reflecting a club’s regular-season and postseason performance, as well as its relative skill at the plate and on the mound.)
2018: 95-68, .583, TS 61.549
2019: 84-78, .519, TS 52.490
2020: 34-26, .567, TS 53.847
The Cubs secured a wild-card berth in 2018 (just two seasons after their legendary World Series triumph over the Indians), slipped a bit in 2019, then rebounded in 2020 to win the National League Central by three games over the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals.
My computer sorted through the three-year records of 1,198 clubs since 1976, seeking the closest matches to the 2020 Cubs. It landed on the 1996 Baltimore Orioles, who left this statistical legacy:
1994: 63-49, .563, TS 60.128
1995: 71-73, .493, TS 50.900
1996: 88-74, .543, TS 53.175
You can see the similarities between the two clubs — a solid first year, followed by a slip, then a nice bounceback. (The 1996 Orioles, by the way, proved to be a big deal in Baltimore, landing the franchise’s first playoff slot in 13 seasons.)
I followed the same process for every team in the NL Central, coming up with the matches that are listed below. Each club is shown with its 2020 record, followed by its doppelganger. The relevant win-loss records and team scores for the latter clubs are shown in parentheses:
Cubs, 34-26, Orioles 1996 (88-74, TS 53.175)
Reds, 31-29, Astros 1977 (81-81, TS 48.958)
Cardinals, 30-28, Twins 2005 (83-79, TS 48.000)
Brewers, 29-31, Diamondbacks 2013 (81-81, TS 43.601)
Pirates, 19-41, Tigers 2002 (55-106, TS 17.911)
The idea, of course, is to examine the future courses of these close matches, thereby obtaining some insight (hopefully) into the coming records for each of the division’s clubs.
But I don’t rely solely on a single parallel. I’ve pinpointed the five closest matches from the past for each current club, and then I’ve averaged their future records for the subsequent three seasons. I’ve given the strongest weight to the closest match, then added the others in descending magnitude.
And here are the results — a series of predicted standings for the next three years.
The immediate news is very good for Chicago fans. Who cares if Darvish and Schwarber are gone? Who cares that the Cardinals have acquired Nolan Arenado? History suggests that the Cubs will roll to another divisional crown in 2021:
Cubs, 92-70
Cardinals, 85-77
Reds, 84-78
Brewers, 78-84
Pirates, 62-100
The closest match for the 2021 Cubs — the 1997 Orioles — won 98 games and soared to their first American League East title in 14 seasons. Three of Chicago’s other four matches for 2021 — the 2019 Cardinals, 2009 Dodgers, and 2006 Athletics — also won divisional crowns.
But our crystal ball gets murky as we proceed. My projected standings for 2022 show four of the five NL Central clubs regressing. Only the Pittsburgh Pirates improve, though not enough to escape last place.
Everybody in 2022, as you can see, is predicted to have a losing record, which is statistically possible, though unlikely. (The tie between the Reds and Cubs is broken by predicted TS.)
Cardinals, 80-82
Reds, 78-84
Cubs, 78-84
Brewers, 75-87
Pirates, 73-89
The very, very, very early forecast for 2023 shows the Cardinals rebounding to win the division again, this time on the sunny side of .500. The Cubs, though, are expected to fulfill their fans’ pessimism with a second straight losing record:
Cardinals, 88-74
Reds, 81-81
Cubs, 79-83
Brewers, 79-83
Pirates, 78-84
If these predictions even come close to reality — admittedly a mighty big if — the National League Central is in for a rocky ride over the next few seasons. You can take a closer look at my divisional forecast below.
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Chicago Cubs
2020 record: 34-26
2020 TS: 53.847; TS rank: 10 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Orioles 1996 (88-74, TS 53.175); 2. Red Sox 1990 (88-74, TS 55.921); 3. Cardinals 2018 (88-74, TS 54.488); 4. Dodgers 2008 (84-78, TS 55.207); 5. Athletics 2005 (88-74, TS 54.891)
What happened to top two matches: The Orioles won the divisional title in 1997, and everything seemed sunny in Baltimore. But the 1998 club plummeted below .500. Baltimore wouldn’t return to the playoffs until 2012. The Red Sox also slipped into mediocrity after 1990, not winning their division for another five years.
2021 prediction: 92-70, TS 60.306 (5 of 30)
2022 prediction: 78-84, TS 42.604 (19 of 30)
2023 prediction: 79-83, TS 45.976 (16 of 30)
Cincinnati Reds
2020 record: 31-29
2020 TS: 48.632; TS rank: 11 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Astros 1977 (81-81, TS 48.958); 2. Angels 1978 (87-75, TS 47.934); 3. Blue Jays 2014 (83-79, TS 48.496); 4. Marlins 1996 (80-82, TS 45.484); 5. Athletics 2010 (81-81, TS 48.270)
What happened to top two matches: The Astros floundered for a year after their break-even performance in 1977, then bounded into title contention in 1979. They made the playoffs the two subsequent years. The Angels were more decisive, winning their division in 1979. But they fell below .500 after that.
2021 prediction: 84-78, TS 54.786 (8 of 30)
2022 prediction: 78-84, TS 42.841 (18 of 30)
2023 prediction: 81-81, TS 47.431 (14 of 30)
Milwaukee Brewers
2020 record: 29-31
2020 TS: 42.825; TS rank: 16 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Diamondbacks 2013 (81-81, TS 43.601); 2. Expos 1984 (78-83, TS 43.549); 3. Rangers 1980 (76-85, TS 42.775); 4. Rays 2014 (77-85, TS 42.842); 5. Red Sox 1997 (78-84, TS 44.782)
What happened to top two matches: The Diamondbacks slipped badly after their .500 performance in 2013. They posted losing records the next three years, twice suffering more than 92 defeats. The Expos did better, going 84-77 in 1985, but the playoffs would elude the franchise until 2012 (as the Washington Nationals).
2021 prediction: 78-84, TS 40.826 (22 of 30)
2022 prediction: 75-87, TS 39.302 (21 of 30)
2023 prediction: 79-83, TS 43.448 (19 of 30)
Pittsburgh Pirates
2020 record: 19-41
2020 TS: 17.177; TS rank: 30 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Tigers 2002 (55-106, TS 17.911); 2. Pirates 2001 (62-100, TS 16.421); 3. Yankees 1990 (67-95, TS 17.305); 4. Cubs 1981 (38-65, TS 17.954); 5. Pirates 2006 (67-95, TS 20.254)
What happened to top two matches: There’s no way to sugarcoat this. The Tigers remained terrible after 2002, posting a miserable 43-119 record the following year and two more losing records following that. (Yet they miraculously made the World Series in 2006.) And the Pirates endured much more pain after 2001 — 11 straight sub-.500 seasons.
2021 prediction: 62-100, TS 22.221 (30 of 30)
2022 prediction: 73-89, TS 37.778 (22 of 30)
2023 prediction: 78-84, TS 43.154 (22 of 30)
St. Louis Cardinals
2020 record: 30-28
2020 TS: 48.121; TS rank: 12 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Twins 2005 (83-79, TS 48.000); 2. Dodgers 1998 (83-79, TS 46.406); 3. Dodgers 2003 (85-77, TS 48.765); 4. Brewers 1989 (81-81, TS 48.805); 5. Cubs 2005 (79-83, TS 45.944)
What happened to top two matches: The Twins won 96 games in 2006 and conquered the AL Central, only to miss the postseason the following two years. The story was worse for the Dodgers, who fell below .500 with a 77-85 mark in 1999 and remained out of postseason play until 2004.
2021 prediction: 85-77, TS 49.625 (11 of 30)
2022 prediction: 80-82, TS 45.216 (15 of 30)
2023 prediction: 88-74, TS 57.838 (6 of 30)