Experts agree that the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres will be the class of the National League West in 2021.
And why not? The Dodgers — the defending world champs — added Trevor Bauer this month to their already imposing starting rotation. And the Padres, who qualified for the playoffs last year for the first time in 14 seasons, acquired a sterling pair of starters this winter, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell.
My computer studiously ignored the Bauer, Darvish, and Snell deals, yet it also has installed the Dodgers and Padres as co-favorites in the NL West.
My theory, as you may recall, is that franchises follow time-honored patterns as they improve or deteriorate. So I’ve compared the 2018-2020 performances of all 30 big-league teams with the corresponding three-year records for 1,198 clubs since 1976, the year when free agency took root.
If we examine the closest matches for each current franchise, it stands to reason that we might get an idea of what lies ahead. (Click here to learn more.)
Here are links to my previous forecasts:
Let’s start today’s installment with the Dodgers. Below is their three-year record, complete with wins, losses, winning percentage, and team score. (Click here to learn more about the 100-point scale for TS, which reflects a club’s regular-season and postseason records, its firepower at the plate, and its skill on the mound and in the field.)
2018: 92-71, .564, TS 78.932
2019: 106-56, .654, TS 79.532
2020: 43-17, .717, TS 94.085
The closest match for the 2020 Dodgers is the 1998 New York Yankees, one of the greatest teams in baseball history. The Yanks also showed steady improvement over the three-year span, culminating in a winning percentage greater than .700, coupled with a world title:
1996: 92-70, .568, TS 73.231
1997: 96-66, .593, TS 74.364
1998: 114-48, .704, TS 96.123
The question, then, is this: What happened to the Yankees after 1998? The outcome should offer us a few clues about the post-2020 Dodgers.
The answer is a very, very good one for Los Angeles fans. The Yanks repeated as world champs in 1999 and 2000, then made the World Series again in 2001, only to be ousted by the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game Seven.
But don’t plan the 2021 championship parade quite yet. My predictions aren’t based solely on the closest parallel for each club. They’re determined by the top five matches, giving descending weight to each step down the scale.
We’ll take a closer look at the resulting forecast in a minute. But let’s begin with last year’s standings for the NL West. Each club is followed by its closest match, along with the latter’s win-loss record and team score:
Dodgers, 43-17, Yankees 1998 (114-48, TS 96.123)
Padres, 37-23, Cubs 1984 (96-65, TS 69.775)
Giants, 29-31, Orioles 2004 (78-84, TS 45.377)
Rockies, 26-34, Mets 1978 (66-96, TS 26.066)
Diamondbacks, 25-35, Yankees 1989 (74-87, TS 31.965)
My computer sifted through the five best matches for each club, and it concluded that the NL West will be a two-team race — not only this year, but in the two seasons that follow.
The projection for 2021 couldn’t be closer. The Dodgers and Padres end up with identical 90-72 records in my forecast. Los Angeles wins the tiebreaker, posting a team score that is 2.277 points higher than San Diego’s.
The division’s other three clubs are consigned to also-ran status, all projected with losing records:
Dodgers, 90-72
Padres, 90-72
Giants, 77-85
Rockies, 70-92
Diamondbacks, 68-94
The forecast for 2022 is based on the second-year performances of each club’s top five matches. The Dodgers regain the upper hand, taking a six-game lead over the Padres, while the other three squads continue to languish below .500:
Dodgers, 88-74
Padres, 82-80
Giants, 76-86
Rockies, 71-91
Diamondbacks, 68-94
And my crystal ball sees more of the same for the NL West in 2023. Another Dodgers title, another second-place finish for the Padres. The Diamondbacks finally show some life, improving by 11 wins, yet they remain below .500, as do their two bottom-dwelling compatriots:
Dodgers, 87-75
Padres, 84-78
Diamondbacks, 79-83
Rockies, 73-89
Giants, 71-91
I’ve already promised to revisit these predictions at the end of the season — to see if history really can tell us something about future performances. If you’d like a more detailed explanation of today’s NL West forecast, look below.
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Arizona Diamondbacks
2020 record: 25-35
2020 TS: 30.931; TS rank: 25 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Yankees 1989 (74-87, TS 31.965); 2. Orioles 2000 (74-88, TS 30.979); 3. Orioles 1986 (73-89, TS 32.883); 4. Red Sox 1992 (73-89, TS 32.636); 5. Cardinals 1994 (53-61, TS 33.454)
What happened to top two matches: The Yankees missed the playoffs for the eighth straight year in 1989, and their situation did not improve in coming seasons. They lost 95 games in 1990 and remained below .500 through 1992. The Orioles posted losing records for 11 consecutive years after 2000.
2021 prediction: 68-94, TS 24.869 (29 of 30)
2022 prediction: 68-94, TS 28.083 (30 of 30)
2023 prediction: 79-83, TS 43.263 (20 of 30)
Colorado Rockies
2020 record: 26-34
2020 TS: 27.417; TS rank: 26 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Mets 1978 (66-96, TS 26.066); 2. Orioles 2001 (63-98, TS 26.983); 3. Mets 1993 (59-103, TS 28.434); 4. Indians 2010 (69-93, TS 28.261); 5. White Sox 2014 (73-89, TS 29.452)
What happened to top two matches: The Mets floundered after flipping the page on 1978. Their best winning percentage in the subsequent five years was .420. The Orioles made incremental progress after 2001 — improving by four wins in 2002 and another four in 2003 — but they wouldn’t qualify for the playoffs until 2012.
2021 prediction: 70-92, TS 31.152 (27 of 30)
2022 prediction: 71-91, TS 31.219 (28 of 30)
2023 prediction: 73-89, TS 36.977 (26 of 30)
Los Angeles Dodgers
2020 record: 43-17
2020 TS: 94.085; TS rank: 1 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Yankees 1998 (114-48, TS 96.123); 2. Athletics 1990 (103-59, TS 89.366); 3. Braves 1999 (103-59, TS 78.705); 4. Blue Jays 1993 (95-67, TS 82.767); 5. Yankees 1978 (100-63, TS 77.438)
What happened to top two matches: The 1998 Yankees live on in the annals of baseball history, and their successors did quite nicely, too. New York made the playoffs in each of the next nine years. The Athletics reached the World Series in 1990, but found it difficult to sustain their success. They qualified for the postseason only once between 1991 and 1999.
2021 prediction: 90-72, TS 61.677 (3 of 30)
2022 prediction: 88-74, TS 60.651 (1 of 30)
2023 prediction: 87-75, TS 52.698 (8 of 30)
San Diego Padres
2020 record: 37-23
2020 TS: 68.422; TS rank: 3 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Cubs 1984 (96-65, TS 69.775); 2. Brewers 1978 (93-69, TS 64.905); 3. Cubs 2015 (97-65, TS 64.366); 4. Giants 1993 (103-59, TS 69.504); 5. Indians 1994 (66-47, TS 67.331)
What happened to top two matches: The Cubs showed great promise in 1984 — falling one game short of making the World Series — but they couldn’t seal the deal in the years ahead. They didn’t return to the playoffs until 1989. The Brewers fashioned a string of winning seasons after 1978, finally winning an American League pennant in 1982.
2021 prediction: 90-72, TS 59.400 (6 of 30)
2022 prediction: 82-80, TS 46.350 (13 of 30)
2023 prediction: 84-78, TS 45.169 (18 of 30)
San Francisco Giants
2020 record: 29-31
2020 TS: 45.582; TS rank: 14 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Orioles 2004 (78-84, TS 45.377); 2. Giants 1981 (56-55, TS 45.749); 3. Reds 2006 (80-82, TS 44.307); 4. Mariners 2007 (88-74, TS 45.353); 5. Indians 2004 (80-82, TS 44.793)
What happened to top two matches: A bleak period stretched ahead of the Orioles after their 78-victory season in 2004. They wouldn’t win as many as 75 games in any subsequent year until 2012. The 1981 version of the Giants faced a brighter future, finally winning an NL West crown six years later and making the World Series in 1989.
2021 prediction: 77-85, TS 37.974 (23 of 30)
2022 prediction: 76-86, TS 35.988 (25 of 30)
2023 prediction: 71-91, TS 29.215 (30 of 30)