AL playoffs 2022 forecast
The Rays won’t win their division, but they’re still the league’s postseason favorite
I spent the past six Fridays predicting the divisional standings for the coming season, or at least the season that we all hope is coming.
My system is different from the rest. I focused on history, matching each club’s record over the span of 2019-2021 against the corresponding three-year marks for every team since the advent of free agency in 1976.
It’s my contention that franchises tend to follow similar patterns on the upgrade or the downswing, no matter what changes they might make over the offseason. So I pinpointed the closest matches from past years for each current club, then checked the subsequent records of those teams.
You can follow these links to see the resulting predictions for the six divisions:
Now it’s time to simulate October’s postseason action, and that’s where another problem comes in. There were 10 playoff teams in 2021, 16 as part of the truncated Covid schedule in 2020. The owners are pushing for 14 in the current negotiations, while the players are seeking to restrict the number of qualifiers to 12.
Who knows how many there will actually be?
The owners rarely win these things, so I’ll throw them a bone. I’ll use their 14-club structure in my simulation. I’ll run each series 1,000 times, based on the regular-season team scores (TS) envisioned by my computer. The team that wins the majority of my simulations will advance to the next round.
TS, as you know, is plotted on a 100-point scale. It’s determined by a formula that gives equal weight to four factors: winning percentage, the differential between runs scored and allowed per game, the differential between bases per out (BPO) attained by batters and allowed by pitchers, and postseason success.
The top-rated club in each league — the 1 seed — gets a bye under the owners’ system. The other six teams square off in three wild-card series. Then we move to familiar ground, with a pair of division series, followed by the league’s championship series. The winner, of course, heads on to the World Series.
Here with go with the 2022 American League playoffs. The National League will come on Friday.
Subscribe — free — to Baseball’s Best (and Worst)
A new installment will arrive in your email each Tuesday and Friday morning
American League Wild Card Series #1
Matchup: Chicago White Sox (2 seed, first place in AL Central, TS 56.841) vs. Boston Red Sox (7 seed, fourth place in AL East, TS 48.276)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: White Sox 554, Red Sox 446
Bottom line: It’s a battle of Sox, with Chicago easily advancing. The computer sees this as the most lopsided of any American League series, and why not? Boston ranks next to last in the AL East. The Red Sox wouldn’t have gotten anywhere close to the playoffs under the old system.
American League Wild Card Series #2
Matchup: Oakland Athletics (3 seed, first place in AL West, TS 55.444) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (6 seed, third place in AL East, TS 50.144)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Athletics 518, Blue Jays 482
Bottom line: The A’s emerged as the surprising choice to win the AL West, moving past the division’s recent colossus, the Astros. And Oakland maintains its momentum here, slipping past the Blue Jays. Toronto is an up-and-coming power, but not quite a match for the A’s yet.
American League Wild Card Series #3
Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays (4 seed, second place in AL East, TS 58.140) vs. Houston Astros (5 seed, second place in AL West, TS 51.221)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Rays 510, Astros 490
Bottom line: The Rays are consigned to the 4 seed in these playoffs, yet their projected record is the second-best in the entire league, trailing only the Yankees (and barely at that). This proves to be the AL’s tightest series, with Tampa Bay surviving to fight another day.
American League Division Series #1
Matchup: New York Yankees (1 seed, first place in AL East, TS 58.691) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (ALWCS #3)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Rays 518, Yankees 482
Bottom line: These two clubs are virtually even on paper, the only AL teams with team scores above 57. Tampa Bay has been more successful recently — making the World Series in 2020 — and the computer likes its chances here. The Rays edge the Yanks in an exciting matchup.
American League Division Series #2
Matchup: Chicago White Sox (ALWCS #1) vs. Oakland Athletics (ALWCS #2)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Athletics 526, White Sox 474
Bottom line: The White Sox should be confident after easily dominating the weak AL Central, then quickly ousting the Red Sox. Yet it’s the surprising Athletics who come out on top in the simulation of this series, even though their TS is lower than Chicago’s.
American League Championship Series
Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays (ALDS #1) vs. Oakland Athletics (ALDS #2)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Rays 534, Athletics 466
Bottom line: The Rays roll into the ALCS after a hard-fought battle with the Yankees, but the computer doesn’t see that as a problem. It gives Tampa Bay a comfortable margin over Oakland in the ALCS, picking the Rays to confront the National League champ in the World Series. And who will that be? We’ll find out on Friday.