Spring training is not yet over, but it’s already time for the postseason.
I devoted the past few weeks to my forecasts for baseball’s 2024 regular season, using a system that matched each club’s record over the span of 2021-2023 against the corresponding three-year marks for 1,288 teams since free agency began in 1976.
You can follow these links to see the resulting predictions for all six divisions:
There’s only one thing left to do — extending my forecast to include October’s playoff action. I’ll run 1,000 simulations of each postseason series, powered by each club’s prediction score. (Follow any of the above divisional-forecast links to learn more about prediction scores.) The team that wins more than 500 simulations will advance to the next round.
The two top-rated teams in each league — the 1 and 2 seeds — get byes in the wild-card round. They subsequently play the two wild-card winners in a pair of division series, culminating in the league’s championship series. The winner, of course, heads on to the World Series.
We’ll take an advance look at the 2024 American League playoffs below. The National League will come on Friday, followed by the predicted World Series clash next week.
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American League Wild Card Series #1
Matchup: Minnesota Twins (3 seed, first place in AL Central, 71 prediction points) vs. New York Yankees (6 seed, fourth place in AL East, 83 prediction points)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Twins 429, Yankees 571
Bottom line: The Twins are predicted to finish the season with only the eighth-best record in the AL, yet they’re installed here as the 3 seed, thanks to the vagaries of the playoff system. No matter. The computer envisions the Yankees making short work of them.
American League Wild Card Series #2
Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays (4 seed, second place in AL East, 105 prediction points) vs. Baltimore Orioles (5 seed, third place in AL East, 100 prediction points)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Rays 523, Orioles 477
Bottom line: The predicted records for the Rays and Orioles would be sufficient to win either of the league’s other two divisions, but both clubs have to settle for wild-card berths from the AL East. The Rays emerge with a slight edge in this forecast.
American League Division Series #1
Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays (1 seed, first place in AL East, 111 prediction points) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (4 seed, second place in AL East, 105 prediction points)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Blue Jays 526, Rays 474
Bottom line: My predicted standings put Toronto and Tampa Bay neck and neck in the AL East’s regular-season race. They’ll meet in the Division Series for a rematch, with the Blue Jays again holding a slight advantage.
American League Division Series #2
Matchup: Houston Astros (2 seed, first place in AL West, 100 prediction points) vs. New York Yankees (6 seed, fourth place in AL East, 83 prediction points)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Astros 512, Yankees 488
Bottom line: A fourth-place club in an ALDS? Yes, and a highly competitive fourth-place club at that. The computer expects the Yanks to overachieve and give the Astros a real scare, though Houston is envisioned as the winner in the end.
American League Championship Series
Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays (1 seed, first place in AL East, 111 prediction points) vs. Houston Astros (2 seed, first place in AL West, 100 prediction points)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Blue Jays 508, Astros 492
Bottom line: Houston has a definite edge in terms of experience. The Astros have appeared in every ALCS since 2017 — winning four and losing three. Toronto has qualified for only two Championship Series (losing both) in the past 30 years. And yet the Blue Jays win slightly more than half of the 1,000 simulations here, bringing a (predicted) pennant to Canada.