2021 predictions: Postseason
Who will be handed the trophy at the end of the World Series? You’ll find the answer below
I spent the past six Tuesdays predicting the divisional standings for the coming season, and I cheerfully admit that my system was a bit unusual.
I balanced each team’s record over the span of 2018-2020 against the corresponding three-year marks for every club since the advent of free agency in 1976. That amounted to 1,198 comparisons for each of the current teams. (Click here to learn more.)
It’s my contention that franchises tend to follow similar patterns on the upgrade or the downswing. (Am I right? We’ll find out at the end of the season.) So I identified the closest matches from past years for each current club, then checked out the subsequent records of those previous teams.
These were the resulting predictions for the six divisions:
But we can’t stop with the end of the regular season.
I decided to simulate October’s postseason action, slotting the 10 clubs that will make the playoffs if my predictions hold true. (I know there were 16 playoff teams last year. But Major League Baseball intends — at least at this moment — to return to the traditional 10-team setup this fall.)
My computer ran each wild-card game or playoff series 1,000 times, based on the regular-season team scores (TS) projected by my system. (Click here for a refresher course on TS.) The club that won the majority of my simulations advanced to the next round.
Each team is listed below with its projected win-loss record for the regular season, followed by its number of victories in 1,000 simulations.
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American League Wild Card
Chicago White Sox (94-68), 572 wins
New York Yankees (85-77), 428 wins
Bottom line: This is the most lopsided result of the entire postseason. Chicago’s superior firepower sends the Yankees to a quick and early departure.
National League Wild Card
San Diego Padres (90-72), 552 wins
St. Louis Cardinals (85-77), 448 wins
Bottom line: History shows the Padres to be on a strong upswing, while the Cardinals barely edge past the Reds to make the playoffs, then exit quickly.
American League Division Series 1
Tampa Bay Rays (91-71), 558 wins
Oakland Athletics (85-77), 442 wins
Bottom line: Pundits are ruling out both the Rays and Athletics this year, but my predictions match them in the playoffs, with the Rays moving on.
American League Division Series 2
Chicago White Sox (94-68), 510 wins
Minnesota Twins (95-67), 490 wins
Bottom line: 2021’s best divisional battle occurs in the AL Central, where the Twins win the regular-season crown by a single game. But Chicago exacts postseason revenge.
National League Division Series 1
Los Angeles Dodgers (90-72), 545 wins
Washington Nationals (87-75), 455 wins
Bottom line: Last year’s champion and 2019’s titlist both win their divisions in 2021, setting up this confrontation. The Dodgers advance easily.
National League Division Series 2
Chicago Cubs (92-70), 522 wins
San Diego Padres (90-72), 478 wins
Bottom line: The experts are already writing off the Cubs. But my computer thinks they have one more good year in them, capped by this triumph over the Padres.
American League Championship Series
Chicago White Sox (94-68), 506 wins
Tampa Bay Rays (91-71), 494 wins
Bottom line: Chicago seems to have a sizable edge on paper, but Tampa Bay hangs tough from the first pitch to the last. The White Sox barely survive.
National League Championship Series
Los Angeles Dodgers (90-72), 505 wins
Chicago Cubs (92-70), 495 wins
Bottom line: Do you know how close we came to an all-Chicago World Series? The NLCS is 2021’s tightest playoff round of all, with the defending champs squeezing out a victory.
World Series
Chicago White Sox (94-68), 516 wins
Los Angeles Dodgers (90-72), 484 wins
Bottom line: A replay of the 1959 World Series, but with the opposite result. The White Sox come all the way from a wild-card berth to the fourth world title in their 121-year history. Break out the champagne!