NL playoffs 2022 forecast
The Dodgers get a scare in the NLDS, but they survive to return to the World Series
Yes, sadly, baseball’s labor dispute continues. But so, in a countervailing burst of optimism, my 2022 predictions keep rolling along, too.
It’s now time for the National League’s postseason projections, following Tuesday’s forecast of the Tampa Bay Rays as the American League champs.
All of this, as you know, stems from my formula that stacks each team’s record over the span of 2019-2021 against the corresponding three-year marks for every club since the advent of free agency in 1976.
This history was my tool to catch a glimpse of the future. I looked for the closest alignments between teams from previous years and current clubs. The subsequent records of those earlier squads should foreshadow 2022’s standings, or so goes my theory.
I began this process by generating predictions for all six divisions, which you can revisit here:
Then I simulated the playoffs for the American League, using the 14-team postseason structure (seven qualifiers in each league) favored by the owners. Nobody knows what kind of system will emerge from the current negotiations, but who wants to sit around and wait for the owners and players to agree on anything? So I settled on 14 qualifiers for this exercise.
I simulated each resulting postseason series 1,000 times, using the regular-season team scores (TS) generated for my divisional predictions. The team that won the majority of the simulations advanced to the next round.
This is the point where I should interject my oft-given definition of team score, just to be thorough. My formula gives equal weight to four factors: winning percentage, the differential between runs scored and allowed per game, the differential between bases per out (BPO) attained by batters and allowed by pitchers, and postseason success. The result is a score on a 100-point scale.
The top-rated club in each league — the 1 seed — received a bye under the owners’ system. The other six teams squared off in three wild-card series, with the survivors advancing to the division series, then the league’s championship series.
All that remains after the following National League predictions is the World Series, which will be the subject next Tuesday.
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National League Wild Card Series #1
Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals (2 seed, first place in NL Central, TS 58.870) vs. Miami Marlins (7 seed, second place in NL East, TS 44.446)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Cardinals 556, Marlins 444
Bottom line: The final three clubs to qualify for the NL’s playoff field have unimpressive team scores, to say the least, and their inadequacies will be on display in the opening round. The powerful Cardinals should easily subdue the Marlins, who just might bring a sub-.500 record into the postseason.
National League Wild Card Series #2
Matchup: Atlanta Braves (3 seed, first place in NL East, TS 56.700) vs. Chicago Cubs (6 seed, fourth place in NL Central, TS 44.731)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Braves 542, Cubs 458
Bottom line: The defending world champs will face another club with a weak record and no real shot at a league title. The rebuilding Cubs will consider themselves lucky simply to be allowed to square off against the Braves, and they will exit quickly.
National League Wild Card Series #3
Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers (4 seed, second place in NL Central, TS 58.701) vs. Cincinnati Reds (5 seed, third place in NL Central, TS 48.455)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Brewers 573, Reds 427
Bottom line: The Brewers and Reds will finish next to each other in the NL Central’s standings, but that’s where the similarity comes to an end. Milwaukee’s vastly superior pitching (and TS) will translate into a quick and easy victory over Cincinnati.
National League Division Series #1
Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers (1 seed, first place in NL West, TS 68.851) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (NLWCS #3)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Dodgers 506, Brewers 494
Bottom line: The NL playoffs will become considerably more competitive in the second round. The Dodgers are clearly the class of the remaining field, but the computer envisions an unexpectedly close division series. Look for Los Angeles to squeak through over Milwaukee.
National League Division Series #2
Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals (NLWCS #1) vs. Atlanta Braves (NLWCS #2)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Cardinals 513, Braves 487
Bottom line: The Braves are one step away from defending their 2021 title in the 2022 World Series, but the Cardinals will prove to be a formidable (and ultimately insurmountable) barrier. St. Louis is the slight favorite in what promises to be a hard-fought matchup.
National League Championship Series
Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers (NLDS #1) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (NLDS #2)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Dodgers 557, Cardinals 443
Bottom line: The Dodgers and Cardinals are separated by roughly 10 points in team score, which is an enormous gap. Los Angeles emerges from the simulations as the NL’s champion, winning by a much larger margin than either club managed to eke out in the division series. Next stop (on this coming Tuesday): the 2022 World Series against the Tampa Bay Rays, a repeat of 2020’s strange Covid-era confrontation.