NL playoffs 2023 forecast

The Dodgers appear to be poised for a breakthrough in October

Mar 10, 2023

The regular season is drawing closer and closer, leaving me barely enough time to consult my crystal ball about the playoffs six months hence.

Today’s task is the postseason forecast for the National League, following Tuesday’s unsurprising forecast of the Houston Astros as the American League champs.

These predictions, as you know, stem from my formula that stacked each team’s record over the span of 2020-2022 against the corresponding three-year marks for every club since the advent of free agency in 1976.

This history was my tool to snatch a glimpse of the future, seeking the closest alignments between teams from previous years and current clubs. The subsequent records of those earlier teams, after all, might foreshadow 2023’s standings. (Note that I said might.)

I began this process by generating predictions for all six divisions, which you can revisit here:

Now on to my simulations of October’s NL playoff action. I’ll run each series 1,000 times, using the regular-season team scores (TS) that my computer has assigned to each club. The team that wins the majority of my simulations will advance to the next round.

TS is determined by a 100-point formula that gives equal weight to four factors: winning percentage, the differential between runs scored and allowed per game, the differential between bases per out (BPO) attained by batters and allowed by pitchers, and postseason success.

Byes are given in the playoffs to the two top-seeded teams in each league, who await the two wild-card winners. Then come a pair of division series, the league’s championship series, and, of course, the World Series. You can see the predicted results below.

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National League Wild Card Series #1

Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers (3 seed, first place in NL Central, TS 53.248) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (6 seed, third place in NL East, TS 52.478)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Brewers 518, Phillies 482
Bottom line: Last year’s National League champs will be derailed early. The Phillies are slated to lose their opening series against the pitching-rich Brewers. Quite the change from last year, when Philadelphia rang up a flashy 9-2 record in its three NL playoff rounds.

National League Wild Card Series #2

Matchup: New York Mets (4 seed, second place in NL East, TS 54.151) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (5 seed, second place in NL Central, TS 52.834)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Cardinals 508, Mets 492
Bottom line: Last year proved to be a disappointment for the free-spending Mets, who were quickly bounced out in the wild-card round by the San Diego Padres. The same thing will happen again in 2023, with St. Louis applying the mortal blow.

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National League Division Series #1

Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers (1 seed, first place in NL West, TS 64.504) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (NLWCS #2)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Dodgers 553, Cardinals 447
Bottom line: The Dodgers are supposedly in a weakened state this year, but my computer begs to differ. It sees Los Angeles — not San Diego — as the class of the NL West. And it predicts an easy L.A. triumph over the Cardinals in the NLDS.

National League Division Series #2

Matchup: Atlanta Braves (2 seed, first place in NL East, TS 58.506) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (NLWCS #1)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Braves 511, Brewers 489
Bottom line: The Braves and Brewers met in a low-scoring NLDS two years ago, with the Braves winning the decisive game by a single run. Look for a repeat in 2023. Atlanta once again is the favorite to move on.

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