The previous installment of this newsletter focused on my predictions for the American League playoffs six months hence. The Toronto Blue Jays squeaked through my simulations to qualify for the World Series.
And the National League’s representative in my fictional postseason? Well, that’s today’s topic.
I am once again following up on my regular-season forecasts, which I rolled out over the past few weeks. You can revisit the divisional breakdowns — and learn more about my prediction system — through these links:
I’ll run 1,000 simulations below for each National League playoff series, based on the total number of prediction points that my computer assigned to each club. The team that wins the majority of my simulations will advance to the next round.
Byes are given to the two top-seeded teams in each league, who await the two wild-card winners. Then come a pair of division series, the league’s championship series, and, of course, the World Series. You can see the predicted results below, excepting the ultimate matchup between Toronto and the NL champ. That comes next Tuesday.
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National League Wild Card Series #1
Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers (3 seed, first place in NL Central, 98 prediction points) vs. San Diego Padres (6 seed, second place in NL West, 78 prediction points)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Brewers 545, Padres 455
Bottom line: If seeds were based solely on regular-season records, the Brewers would find themselves in the 4 hole. But they’re elevated to the 3 seed because of their title in the weak NL Central. Milwaukee rolls on with a relatively easy win over the unimpressive Padres.
National League Wild Card Series #2
Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies (4 seed, second place in NL East, 122 prediction points) vs. Chicago Cubs (5 seed, second place in NL Central, 85 prediction points)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Phillies 596, Cubs 404
Bottom line: Philadelphia’s score would put it miles ahead of any club in the Central Division, but it’s the Phillies’ misfortune to be stuck behind Atlanta in the East. They’ll take out their frustration on the Cubs in the most lopsided playoff series in either league.
National League Division Series #1
Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers (1 seed, first place in NL West, 143 prediction points) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (4 seed, second place in NL East, 122 prediction points)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Dodgers 544, Phillies 456
Bottom line: The playoff system is supposedly structured to give the 1 seed the easiest road to a championship. That’s not true in this case, as the favored Dodgers run into the dangerous Phillies. The computer gives Los Angeles the edge in this high-powered matchup.
National League Division Series #2
Matchup: Atlanta Braves (2 seed, first place in NL East, 126 prediction points) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (3 seed, first place in NL Central, 98 prediction points)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Braves 562, Brewers 438
Bottom line: The Braves are allowed to fatten up against the overmatched Brewers in the other Division Series. The simulations are a bit closer than you might expect, though Atlanta still advances easily to the NLCS.
National League Championship Series
Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers (1 seed, first place in NL West, 143 prediction points) vs. Atlanta Braves (2 seed, first place in NL East, 126 prediction points)
Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Dodgers 518, Braves 482
Bottom line: This is the heavyweight battle that everybody expects — and wants — to see in October. It’s hard to imagine the Dodgers’ loaded roster coming out on the short end, yet the computer begs to differ. It envisions a tight series from beginning to end, with Los Angeles barely getting through.