How excited are you about the Chicago-Los Angeles World Series?
No, no, I’m not talking about Atlanta and Houston. My mind is still on the ultimate battle between the White Sox and Dodgers that I predicted back in February.
You may remember that I developed a computer program to compare each big-league team’s record during the previous three seasons (2018-2020) against the corresponding marks for every club that played during the era of free agency, which began in 1976.
My idea — my experiment, actually — was to find parallels from the past that might offer hints about the future. I explained in my first entry, referring specifically to the Tampa Bay Rays, but actually covering all 30 teams: “My assumption is that we can learn something about the current Rays — or any other club —by studying what subsequently happened to their close matches from the past.”
I unveiled my resulting predictions in seven installments in January and February. The first six breakdowns examined each division in turn. The seventh provided an advance look at the playoffs, culminating with the White Sox’ thrilling victory over the defending-champion Dodgers.
Oops.
I promised to revisit my forecasts at the end of the season, and this seems as good a time as any. My results weren’t as foresighted as I had hoped. I nailed the correct final positions for 10 of the 30 clubs — not terrible, I guess, though certainly not outstanding — but I accurately predicted only one of the six divisional winners.
And, of course, my World Series forecast was a bit off.
That’s the excitement of baseball, I guess. The spirit of full disclosure inspires me to review my complete regular-season results below. If you wish, you can click on the header for any division to go back to the full forecast.
I’ll try to do better in 2022.
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AL East
Predicted champion: Tampa Bay Rays
Actual champion: Tampa Bay Rays
Predicted standings: 1. Tampa Bay Rays, 2. New York Yankees, 3. Toronto Blue Jays, 4. Boston Red Sox, 5. Baltimore Orioles
Actual outcome: A good start for me. Many of the experts saw the Yankees regaining control of the division — or the young Blue Jays surging to the top. My system correctly predicted that the Rays would retain control, which they did easily. The Red Sox were better than anyone envisioned, tying the Yankees for second place and a wild-card berth. The Orioles, on the other hand, were truly as bad as everyone thought.
AL Central
Predicted champion: Minnesota Twins
Actual champion: Chicago White Sox
Predicted standings: 1. Minnesota Twins, 2. Chicago White Sox, 3. Kansas City Royals, 4. Cleveland Indians, 5. Detroit Tigers
Actual outcome: It’s not that my system doubted the strength of the White Sox. It predicted, in fact, that Chicago would ride a wild-card bid all the way to the world title. That rosy forecast proved to be a tad optimistic, though the Sox did take the divisional championship with unanticipated ease. The real surprise was the collapse of the Twins, who finished dead last. The Indians and Tigers did better than I predicted, the Royals did worse.
AL West
Predicted champion: Oakland Athletics
Actual champion: Houston Astros
Predicted standings: 1. Oakland Athletics, 2. Los Angeles Angels, 3. Texas Rangers, 4. Houston Astros, 5. Seattle Mariners
Actual outcome: Yes, yes, my forecast incorrectly called for the Astros’ reign to end badly, though (in my lame defense) I wasn’t alone. An erratic 2020 inspired widespread doubts about Houston’s longevity. It turned out that Oakland was the team that lacked staying power, slipping to third place. The Mariners, whom I had ticketed for last place, actually remained in wild-card contention to the end. I overrated both the Angels and Rangers.
NL East
Predicted champion: Washington Nationals
Actual champion: Atlanta Braves
Predicted standings: 1. Washington Nationals, 2. Atlanta Braves, 3. New York Mets, 4. Miami Marlins, 5. Philadelphia Phillies
Actual outcome: Nobody else was picking the Nats, so I thought this might emerge as a savvy forecast. It didn’t. Washington played mediocre ball in the first half, then decided to unload its stars. An inevitable collapse to last place ensued. My choice for second place, Atlanta, charged all the way to the World Series. I did correctly peg the Mets for third and the Marlins for fourth, though I did not envision the rise of the second-place Phillies.
NL Central
Predicted champion: Chicago Cubs
Actual champion: Milwaukee Brewers
Predicted standings: 1. Chicago Cubs, 2. St. Louis Cardinals, 3. Cincinnati Reds, 4. Milwaukee Brewers, 5. Pittsburgh Pirates
Actual outcome: This was one of 2021’s truly unexpected developments. Who envisioned the Brewers winning 95 games and coasting to a divisional title? Not me. I did nail the positions of the Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates. But the big surprise — to me, at least — was the swan dive by the Cubs. The defending NL Central champs sold off all of their stars and plummeted to fourth.
NL West
Predicted champion: Los Angeles Dodgers
Actual champion: San Francisco Giants
Predicted standings: 1. Los Angeles Dodgers, 2. San Diego Padres, 3. San Francisco Giants, 4. Colorado Rockies, 5. Arizona Diamondbacks
Actual outcome: The Dodgers won 106 games, which should have guaranteed them the NL West crown. Not this year. They finished behind the Giants, a 107-55 club that had played sub-.500 ball the previous four seasons. I don’t feel contrite about missing San Francisco’s resurgence — everybody did — but I sorely overestimated the Padres, who placed a very weak third. The Rockies and Diamondbacks finished exactly where expected.