And now for the main event — if, of course, the labor gods allow it to be played.
I devoted eight of this newsletter’s recent entries to my predictions for 2022, a season that still might be staged if the owners and players somehow overcome their stupidity at the bargaining table.
My first six stories offered division-by-division rundowns:
Then came last week’s pair of postseason forecasts, using the owners’ proposed structure of 14 qualifiers, with seven per league. My computer sees the American League’s 2022 tournament this way:
American League Wild Card Series #1: Chicago White Sox over Boston Red Sox
American League Wild Card Series #2: Oakland Athletics over Toronto Blue Jays
American League Wild Card Series #3: Tampa Bay Rays over Houston Astros
American League Division Series #1: Rays over New York Yankees
American League Division Series #2: Athletics over White Sox
American League Championship Series: Rays over Athletics
And this is the way I envision the National League’s side of the playoffs, again with seven clubs making the postseason:
National League Wild Card Series #1: St. Louis Cardinals over Miami Marlins
National League Wild Card Series #2: Atlanta Braves over Chicago Cubs
National League Wild Card Series #3: Milwaukee Brewers over Cincinnati Reds
National League Division Series #1: Los Angeles Dodgers over Brewers
National League Division Series #2: Cardinals over Braves
National League Championship Series: Dodgers over Cardinals
That sets up a rerun of the 2020 World Series between the Rays and the Dodgers, though with an important twist.
The series two years ago was conducted under Covid restrictions. It was played on a neutral site (Globe Life Field, home of the Texas Rangers), with attendance restricted to 11,000 fans per night. This year’s matchup presumably will revert to the traditional situation of capacity crowds at hometown ballparks.
We can only hope.
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I ran 1,000 simulations for each of the preliminary playoff series, fueled by the projected team scores (TS) for the clubs involved. TS, as I frequently mention, is plotted on a 100-point scale. It is determined by four equally weighted factors: winning percentage, the differential between runs scored and allowed per game, the differential between bases per out (BPO) attained by batters and allowed by pitchers, and postseason success.
I decided to simulate the World Series 10,000 times, reflecting its greater importance, though I had no illusions about the outcome. The Dodgers enter 2022’s final round with a much higher TS than the Rays, greatly enhancing their odds of victory. Here’s the breakdown:
Los Angeles, projected record of 94-68, TS 68.851
Tampa Bay, projected record of 91-71, TS 58.140
The Rays proved to be remarkably pesky when I ran the simulations, though they still fell short of a 50-50 split. Los Angeles won 5,362 of the series, compared to 4,638 for Tampa Bay.
That leaves the Rays with a decent chance of finally securing their first World Series trophy after falling short by three games to Philadelphia in 2008 and two games to Los Angeles in 2020. But it’s more likely that the Dodgers will bring home their eighth world championship.
The catch, of course, is that all 30 clubs will actually have to take the field to bring my 2022 scenarios to life.
And what are the odds of that happening? Very small indeed, unless the infants in the negotiating room finally decide to show some maturity.